Human Behavior and Mathematical Modeling COVID-19- another addendum

In my recent posting, I had estimated the expected end of “1st wave” and total estimated deaths as of that point in time. Based on data at that time, it seemed we had passed an inflection point, and would enjoy a basically contained situation with roughly 70,000 cumulative deaths by mid-May. Sadly, I was quite incorrect. In my own defense, so was the CDC. I believe our mutual error was the assumption of rational behavior from our citizens, who- during April- seemed to be mostly adhering to scientific expert recommendation with the required shutdowns aside from essential services. By early May, increasing irrational behavior was evident. As individuals, we observed people socializing unprotected, holding parties despite advice, and so on. And then our local governments allowed restaurants to reopen- for indoor dining. “Yes- we’re open!” (No charge for extra protein in viral form!) signs abounded. CDC and other scientific experts warned that they expected an increase in transmission and fatalities. And the reaction to this advice- denial. The old joke tells us, “De Nial is not just a river in Egypt.” Somehow, individual decisions were based on the incorrect assumption that mathematical and scientific models can be nullified by edict. Highly illogical. Recall the Inquisition of the 15th-16th century, during which the Church rejected all evidence of a heliocentric solar system as heresy, decreeing the geocentric model was the only permissible model- on penalty of death. As we now all realize (hopefully), such decrees may be unpleasant for those who adhere to mathematical and scientific truth, but as we can see, the planets still orbit the sun. Similarly, those who declare COVID-19 to be hyped, political, not especially dangerous, etc. do so not based on mathematical and scientific evidence, but rather based on their own desired conclusion- namely, “We want everything opened NOW NOW NOW!” (stamping feet) Do I dare project future COVID-19 figures at this time? With the daily transmission rate having surpassed 71,000, and still increasing, perhaps we shall see no letup, and one long wave for the next several months? Projection becomes quite complicated when human behavior is a factor. We had recently 4th of July celebrations (despite recommendations to the contrary), theme parks reopening, schools perhaps reopening next month, all such events tending to shift the curve in an undesirable direction. And speaking as a teacher, it is expected that students will not necessarily retain every nitty gritty detail from math and science classes. However, key concepts should be retained, especially logical deduction, algebraic, exponential, and logistic growth functions, the scientific method, etc. We see here that many citizens- in other countries as well- while they covered these in secondary grades, they seem to have either forgotten all of this, or are arbitrarily discarding this because they do not like the conclusions reached therefrom. It is an accomplishment to graduate from high school, college, and so on, but if- and only if- the knowledge acquired is actually applied in our everyday decisions.