Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 addendum

We are now over a month into the pandemic crisis in the U.S., and - with more data now to work with- it is becoming possible to more easily and accurately extrapolate the end result of this cycle. We seem to have just a few days ago- around April 10- reached the inflection point in terms of total cases, and are just now reaching the inflection point in terms of total deaths. Insofar as that marks the halfway point of the cycle, we can thereby project a total of 1 to 1.1 million total cases in this country, with a resulting 50,000-60,000 American deaths by the time the virus is contained. We can likely anticipate containment around mid-May. Most mathematicians - if asked to project given current data- would likely offer a similar projection. However, we would need the medical professionals and other scientists to provide further data to consider the future beyond that. What is the potential of subsequent waves of infection? How long until there is a vaccine to protect the public from this virus? We can only work with the data we are given.

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